One word that sums up 2008….. PONZI.

Today the last date of the year, was reminiscing over and trying to come up with one word that defines and kinda sums up the eventful 2008.

After quite a bit of contemplation the only word that stood out was PONZI. The reasoning behind it is as follow

1) The mortgage giant called Country Wide with its no paper required mortgaging, zero down payment – mortgage scheme laid the ground work for mortgage crisis as we see it today. This scheme was targeted specifically at lower middle class and on boarder line poverty ridden consumers. These consumers were basically duped into buy homes under ARM( adjustable rate mortgages) and they never in their wildest dreams imagined the housing sector to collapse inwards in a downward spiral effecting every means of living. This was the very first PONZI scheme. Where in a few made money off of hard working Americans in the name of fulfilling the “American Dream” of owning a home
a) For the above said to take place the very core of the mortgage crisis was “own a house” philosophy of our President Bush. Though the premise of this was make the American dream more affordable never was this thought through. This lead to the above said.
b) With Country Wide going bust and the ARMs adjusting for major chunk of the population there was a growing number of Americans who saw their home value depreciating. Suddenly a monthly mortgage that was $2500/- per month jumped to $4500/- a month ( due to ARM) and to top it all, the over all value of the house started falling drastically. Hence if you had a $400k house mortgaged at $2500 a month the new equation took a reversal to $4000/- a month for $350K( and lowering in value every passing day) for the very same house.
c) For most of us in American living on credit is living the American dream (I included). For those who own a house – this is the biggest investment after car (well for most of us). Suddenly with the house not being worth what it was – your equity just got lower and your debt ratio increased affecting your credit score – now this is where the rest of the world takes its dive! With fewer dollars to spend and credit scores lowering people could not spend as they had lived for the better part of the last three decades. When Americans spend less the world economics went haywire. Not only did they notice but they just could avoid the ill effects of it.
d)The mortgage crisis took with it Freddie Mac, Fanny May, WaMu Bank, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Wachovia Bank to name a few high players.

2) The other record setting event for 2008 was price of oil, we saw prizes sky rocketing to > $140 a barrel all in the name of speculation – and today it is less than $34 a barrel this I believe was the biggest PONZI schemes of all.

3) There is no short supply of PONZI’s in 2008, Mr. Rod Blagojevich the governor of IL pawned the very seat that Mr. Barack Obama vacated – some guts I would say especially when he knew he was under FBI radar.

4) The biggest of all was Mr. Bernard Madoff – ran a PONZI scheme that busted big time. It literally had the very rich looking for air to breath. This scheme had investments by the super rich in the country looking for quick cash. The way I look at it is – we do need a Madoff to make the very rich realize what a common man feels like to be thrown out of house that he has been paying for and leading to foreclosure. Forces me to think if that was KARMA.

I am open to your thoughts feel free to add in adjectives / words you things sums up 2008.

Note: I am not saying 2008 was completely rotten. We got to live through and experience the historical American elections which had its many firsts – record turn out for election, first woman in race, first black in race and ultimately leading to first African-American President of USA. But again the year had been so very depressing that one feels almost a sense of grief and dismay at the heaving task(s) for the next president.

_ Common Joe.

Obese obsession for oil!

One major factor in my budget allocation was GAS until today. It is quite unthinkable that the price of any commodity could fall from $140 to >$34 a barrel in four months. But again you might argue what about the stock price of GM? Very close comparison indeed. Agreed that we are going through tough time but $140 to $37.9 I still find this unimaginable.

As said in my first article on Hybrid cars – it is a known fact in American economy that the oil prices will shoot up during summer. But the prices one got to experience this year were not only unprecedented but it was solely to enhance stock portfolios of few and was guided by greed and favoritism. This kept building higher and higher until it reached $140. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_oil_price_in_dollars_from_1999_to_2008_November_21.svg ).

This time around unlike the previous years the average consumer was taken for a ride of a life time and they had about had it. There was a complete reversal in human behavior to a point that you would get one of those “looks” from other commuters incase you happen to drive one of the gas guzzling SUV like GMC Yukon/Denali or Hummer for that matter of fact( I did not mean to point out SUV’s from exclusively GM but these are the biggest guzzlers out there). There was increased awareness of the environmental effects of fossil fuel (though this was not a desired or intended result), people stopped / reduced using cars and opted for mass transit. In some areas mass transit experienced record numbers in commuter traffic.

All this just for making bucks off hard working consumers – most hit was the middle class and the people below poverty line. Not only did they have to balance their monthly budget in terms of high gas prices but the average grocery bill just shoot up 20% due to the direct /indirect dependence on oil for transportation by the agro industry. Since oil affects almost every aspect of life, average living expenses shot up by 20%. Having to experience this in an economy that was not only in recession( though none admits to it) but with the mortgage and credit crisis plus looming unemployment number that was on rise from one month to the next, common Joe just couldn’t make it.

There was a paradigm shift in the way an average individual took to OIL in general. Over this past summer the very OIL that churns the wheels of this economy and is vital for the economy to survive took a nose dive in demand. Not only did the consumer grow OIL averse but they started thinking green and to large extent I would say GREENER and GREENER ( once agin this was not the intended result but the consumer awareness in green energy as we get to experience today has lot to do with the bad times experienced this summer, it just made you think how very dependent our day to living relies on oil) .

The administration did not see this coming, to favor a few in the Petro and its own investment in OIL stocks it went blind sighted in its greed and ultimately dug its own grave. Today the consumer has rejected SUV’s completely poor GM had to halt its Hummer production and not ONE SINGLE model produced by the American big three looks like would see the light of 2009 unless they receive a bail out by congress with tax payer’s money( the bail out got approved thing morning for roughly $17billion this morning, as I write this article).

When the population grew fatter – instead of practicing and professing better food habits and health awareness it was assumed and marketed that an SUV, CUV and big behemoth vehicles was the way to live. The car makers did not have any clue what was coming, with the reverse psychology playing a big part in day to day decision, people just started abandoning cars al together. Before we knew the bigger the better was totally un-cool and smaller the smarter was the selling point.

Now those egos have shrunk to an extent that they would fit in a car the size of Honda FIT!

But the bigger question is with TWO THIRDS of its population officially obese would a smaller car be better FIT? Or better - How would the obese America fit into smaller car the size of HONDA FIT?

I just realized that not only do we have to trim our dependence on OIL if we want to survive but we have to trim our WAISTLINE! America is not only the largest / biggest consumer of OIL in the world it also consumes >1/3 of everything produced with the highest rates of obesity in the world.

Hence not only should we curb our obsession with OIL but also consumption that has turned gluttonously obese. A better pragmatic approach to development needs to be defined and followed.

- Common Joe

Mumbai Mourns

Thanks Giving this year is turning out to be more than what one could have asked for, ask any Indian today and s/he would today be mourning the attack on its soil by the so called Jihandits, who claim to achieve martyrdom by killing innocent civilians.

Now that the sympathetic approach to the situation is done with – I don't think I am surprised by the attacks in Mumbai, this was a situation waiting to happen. One has to just tally up the past attacks to realize there was something major about to happen, it was not what but when - just a matter of time. The intelligence, the politicians along with the lack of any due diligence to analyse any of the past situations lead us to this day – today we have India's very own 9/11 only it reads 11/26.

The death toll in India due to terrorists attacks from 2003 until October 2008 is a remarkable 3000+ this number just shy of a few when compared to tot eh total death in Iraq for the American troupes. But again the Americans are in war!

There is a gross negligence in part of intelligence and the whole covert operations. Its like the terrorists where trying to make a point over a period of time. They had targeted and tried all possible means, home made bombs blasted off in Northern, Southern and Western India( Mumbai, New-Delhi, Varanasi, Mumbai, Train to Pakistan, Hyderabad, Jaipure, Bangalore, Ahmadabad, Delhi and Mumbai again). They targeted the markets, close to parliament, parks and whatnot. Every new attack was a tad bit more sophisticated than the previous. But inspite of all these and varying other incidents there was no real intent ( at least nothing till date proves it) or serious effort from the government to catch the culprits. Not one individual had so far been convicted in any of the attacks. NOT A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL CONVICTED....I am gasping and am furious even as I type this.

Chronology of attacks in India are as follow(Courtesy www.livemint.com Wall Street Journal):

13 March, 2003: A bomb attack on a commuter train in Mumbai kills 11 people.
25 Aug, 2003: Two car bombs kill about 60 in Mumbai.
15 Aug, 2004: A bomb explodes in the northeastern state of Assam, killing 16 people, mostly schoolchildren, and wounding dozens.
29 Oct, 2005: Sixty-six people are killed when three blasts rip through markets in New Delhi.
7 March, 2006: At least 15 people are killed and 60 wounded in three blasts in the pilgrimage city of Varanasi.
11 July, 2006: More than 180 people are killed in seven bomb explosions at railway stations and on trains in Mumbai that are blamed on Islamist militants.
8 Sept, 2006: At least 32 people are killed in a series of explosions, including one near a mosque, in Malegaon town, 260 kms, northeast of Mumbai.
19 Feb, 2007: Two bombs explode aboard a train heading from India to Pakistan; at least 66 passengers, most of them Pakistanis, burn to death.
18 May, 2007: A bomb explodes during Friday prayers at a historic mosque in the southern city of Hyderabad, killing 11 worshippers. Police later shoot dead five people in clashes with hundreds of enraged Muslims who protest against the attack.
25 Aug, 2007: Three coordinated explosions at an amusement park and a street stall in Hyderabad kill at least 40 people.
13 May, 2008: Seven bombs rip through the crowded streets of the city of Jaipur, killing at least 63 people in markets and outside Hindu temples.
25 July: Eight small bombs hit the IT city of Bangalore, killing at least one woman and wounding at least 15.
26 July: At least 16 small bombs explode in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, killing 45 people and wounding 161. A little-known group called the “Indian Mujahideen” claims responsibility for the attack and the May 13 attack in Jaipur.
13 Sept: At least five bombs explode in crowded markets and streets in the heart of New Delhi, killing at least 18 people and injuring scores more. The Indian Mujahideen again claim responsibility.
26 Nov: At least 80 people were killed in a series of attacks apparently aimed at tourists in India’s financial capital Mumbai on Wednesday. Police said at least 250 people had been wounded.

The recent attacks in Mumbai proved how much the terrorists had grown, coordinated and masterminded from there earlier attacks using home made bombs. Is was like the terrorists realized that there was no point attacking the Indian civilians - hence they went after the tourists to create the very wide spread attention that they sought. It was and is an awakening that the Indian intelligence very desperately needs to not be reactive( at least reactive would have been good, but the whole department seems dead asleep) and not just panic, stress out at a given terrorist/hostage situation. I do hope we take this as a moment and day of vivisection, pull our strings together and get our act right. The war on terrorism is real and if the roots are not cut at the very innate stage, alas!,before we know it will grip the whole country like the roots of the banyan tree.

So my friends this Thanks Giving hold on to your thanks, pray that there is eminent action, revitalization and gut willing ramifications at every required level and at most in the department of intelligence and counter terrorism. If things work out the way you had asked for you can thank you Lord, God, Allah or whoever you pray to - the next thanks giving.

Hinduism is a peaceful religion and Mahatma Gandhi taught us to show the other check in case we get slapped. The preaching of non-violence tough very resounding, reassuring and glorifying, in a day and age when you are sure to loose your head before you can turn your other check – we not only need to be prepared but we better be able to be ahead of the perpetrators. I sincerely hope with a billion population we will not face much difficulty on how we attain it – it is a matter of conviction, discipline and sense of patriotism that is required at the highest level to the lowest to attain this.

With prayers for the departed and for a peaceful life a head...

Common Joe.

Caught in Capitulation?

If you haven’t heard the word “Capitulation” in the recent past then you are not well aware of the financial industry and it is more than likely that you do not have a stock portfolio. I fall in the latter group, my only interaction with stock market is through my retirement account. The word was new to me and I though may be I should take some time out to dig in.

The word had been used in numerous ways in the recent past to describe the mentality of the stock market. It stands to emphasize the sheer uncontrollable fall / volatility in stock prices ultimately leading the investors to completely loose hope and give up.

When and how did the word come into use? It started off as a usage in war time where in one submits /surrenders to the hostile forces and is the only way left.

As for me, I feel capitulated to a point that I am more than eager to see a new administration give this country a fresh breath of vision, diplomacy, and basic health care.

I am not too sure if the word can be used as in the previous sentence but seems like a perfect fit to express a feeling of having “given up” than “surrender”.

So do you feel capitulated?

- Common Joe

Tumbling Trio

News of the Detroit Trio tumbling their way to bankruptcy is all over the news; with the $700 billion rescue package cleared by the congress every one wants a share of the pie. We have seen CC companies like American Express willing to forgo the freedom they had and to be much regulated and in their operations, to fall in lines with the rest of the banking sector only to get the slice in $700 billion. This was the most dramatic turn of the sub-prime effect so far, or so you think.

Does Transamerica ring a bell? Not many among us (I being an ardent NPR follower got to hear about them in an evening broadcast) might have heard about them. Transamerica is a Dutch insurance firm that operates in US. Keep in mind a DUTCH firm. Unfortunately they aren’t eligible to ask for $$$ from the rescue package because they are not federally regulated. What is the innovative way to become eligible – take over a low key bank that is federally regulated!

Dire means taken to get funding. Which gets me to thinking – Should the Detroit TRIO be rescued?

The trio represents the American acumen in manufacturing and specifically in automobile industry. Right from the day when Henry Ford rolled his model T to today it has been a roller coaster rider for all the three. The irony is model T performed at an average of 28 mile/gallon. With advancement in technology and more than half a century later there is not one model that the three produce that beats the performance of model T! Sad state of affairs indeed.

Somewhere down the line leading up till date these companies lost track of what the common man wants. They thought as long as they banter the slogan of patriotism people will buy cars. Every possible improvement was made to the car without having looked into the actual reliability and cost of ownership of these behemoth vehicles. The sole thinking was bigger the better. This strategy worked for a few years but when people started realizing the true cost of owning these vehicles when compared to Japanese counterparts, the patriotism campaign wasn’t after all selling many cars. Today we are at a juncture where in all the three have complicated union structure and massive unsold inventory never seen in the history of America.

After union negotiations and cost cutting, inclusive of downsizing these companies they are all at a juncture where unless some drastic measure is taken they might not see the light of 2009. When the $700 billion package was announced – I for one thought it was a lot of money ( for the most part I was counting the number of zero’s in a billion!). But in today’s economic crunch $700 billion doesn’t look like much if banks, automobile, credit crunch, insurance, mortgage all or any or few of these sectors have to be rescued.

If the Detroit Trio is allowed to fail then the losses will be in lines of 1.1 – 5.5 million jobs. This is taking into consideration all the related industries that directly or indirectly work with the auto industry. Right from companies that make tires, paints, parts, suppliers, couriers etc. Last but not least DMV, highway tolls and the list goes on, oops almost forgot ExxonMobil, Shell, BP.

Today we do know that the war fought in Iraq is going nowhere; we are not fighting terrorism but indeed creating terrorists of future. There are three wars being fought Iraq, Afghanistan and most likely new inclusion - Pakistan. Every month the cost of fighting the Iraq and Afghanistan war together stands at $16 billion. The country spends $16billion on wars that are not fetching anything. We jumped into it without knowing the compete facts and are paying a price by not able to support the very industry that forms the core of the US mobility.

For crying out loud the whole country was designed to sell cars, right from town planning to DIY network relies on the fact that everyone on America will have ( not own) a car as soon as s/he is 16.

Do you think the Fed should bail out the auto industry? If not. Why? After all AIG was saved with an unprecedented $125 billion ( and counting). Then why not the auto industry? Do we now discriminate among the lines of blue collar and white collar jobs? Or you think they have been saved enough and need to fall and file for bankruptcy to get on track!

Whatever you stance, I am sad that we had a government that has got us to a point that our investment in Iraq is beyond any sanguine comprehension. We can’t pull out of it even if we want to. While the whole economy is sinking – would you be able to guess one company that’s still reaping benefits? ------------------------------ How does Halliburton sound?

Common Joe.

Fat Matters

If you follow the news, you would have heard the new regulation by the state of Alabama towards the medical insurance sponsored through the state. In the state of AL health insurance is wrapped in benefits package for all the state employees, the state intends to start charging $25/- from 2010 incase the employee doesn’t maintain the acceptable levels of BMI( Body Mass Index), glucose levels and blood pressure.

It should have taken some realization at the gov. level to come up with something as unflattering as pointing at obesity and saying “this is not acceptable, something needs to be done”.

Hard to believe that this is the very society that scrutinized its immigrant population for psychological and physiological disorders in the new wave of 20th century immigration and the ones found unfit weren’t allowed to enter, when the early burst of immigrants started coming. The idea behind it might have been to create a gene pool that is sturdy and resilient. It took only two generations for this theory to back fire and today we see an overtly fat America to a point that being fat is no more an exception in the crowd but a lean build stands out from the crowd.

In my opinion penalizing for being fat is not the solution to this. There has to be community awareness on the same. The society in general should be made to think different and educated better in health awareness. In an economy where we find a Mc Donald’s, Burger King, Dunkin Donuts and Starbucks in every corner. It will be very difficult to expect the health of the population to be anything but deteriorating. There’s not one thing in the menu of a fast food joint that enhances your health (except for the salad and fruits they started adding to the menu!).

Our health is directly related to what we eat it is as simple as that. We live in a time where in fast food is the cheapest food and canned / frozen food is the easiest way out. Everything that is used in the fast food industry is questionable right from the saturated oil that things are fried in to the nuked lettuce that is served as healthy alternative!. Canned and frozen foods are no exception they have added preservatives for higher shelf life. All these contribute to your health and not always on a positive note. Over a period of time when you consume these foods it is the very next generation that you give life to that’s hardest hit. Today for the first time in history of this country the current generation has a lower life expectancy than its previous. This is a very serious matter and every one of us should take time out to scrutinize what we eat, how we eat and how much we eat.

As said earlier there are lot of factors that contribute to being fat – take any first generation immigrants in this country, no matter which ethnic population you take into consideration, there will be next to nil obesity. But the second and third generation of the same population will read very high levels of obesity. Which in turn forces me to state “may be it’s not the people, it’s the way of life in America that nurtures us to grow FAT.”

Lets try to analyze the above said by starting with veggies.

Today’s vegetables:

To achieve economies of scale a farmer today cannot conceive farm worker based model, as has become economically non-viable to survive global competition. This forces the framer to lean towards mechanized farming. The only thought that comes when we use the term mechanized farming is may be tractors, sower and harvesters. But the fine line that transpires to mechanized farming is GM or Genetic Modification. The reason mechanized farming is not possible without GM is – the machine does the same job repeatedly without error as long as the one operating it knows how to use it. But for a machine to work repeatedly and produce results it becomes increasingly difficult if the products are all not of the same size / shape.

I will take the example of tomatoes – I am not sure if anyone in America has ever had a generic tomato but if you have had one you will be able to distinguish the taste , texture and the quality of the generic kind to the numerous kinds we get in our grocery shops. The tomato cultivation/production in America would have seen its death along ago if it was not genetically modified to achieve most of the following:

- the fruit stalk ( the connection between the fruit and plant ) was modified to accommodate the harvester. As in when the harvester shakes ( averaging 200 revolutions per minute) the plant stem, the ripe fruit would detach at this juncture( if I may say so, excuse my very poor plant science knowledge)
- the skin of the generic tomato is very delicate and the chances that the fruit will survive a harvester at 200 rev/min being very slim the skin was GM’ed to be thicker.

These are just some of the changes – apart from these, modifications take place in terms of resilience to diseases, to reduce production of a particular enzyme to increase shelf life etc etc etc.

What I am trying to get at is – if a readily available and widely used fruit / veg as tomato could under go so may GM’s, imagine - a simple meal in a plate, I can only hope “ atleast the water used in cooking this meal did not have to undergo GM.

We are still talking of vegetables and we are in the very first stages of cultivating it, from the time things get cultivated to the time they land in our plates – if we try to list out all the possible modern marvels that are used then I can say this – genetically mutated, mechanically picked, nuked to kill bacteria, chemically preserved, better tasting with MSG, beautified with food color and colorfully packed!

I could go on the same with meat products they pretty much go through a much gruesome processing right from birth to when they come under the knife to preservation and ultimately on to you table.

To top this list you will find that all the fast food chains use saturated fat in one form or the other to increase the shelf life of the product itself or to deep fry the gourmet 1 minute meal!

Somewhere down the line one has to realize that no matter how deterrent you are to the modern techniques of food production and consumption you chances of eating processed food are alarmingly at a very high percentage.

The good old days where there was a butcher, baker, baber in town – people bought as per the availability and the financial capability. Not every one eat a croissant for break fast, t-bone steak for lunch and cream Brule for desert. But with advent of technology we have meat being cheaper than vegetables, a latte shop in ever corner and ice cream being served in diners! All this at the lowest possible rate.

The society has come to a point where in being obese is not the mark of your affluence on the contrary being lean is possible only with a member ship to gym!

The next time you think of having fast food and soda, give it a though (if you can spare the time!) and comprehend if it is something you want into your body. You are not helping yourself or you next generation by being careless. Whatever little you can – if you make the right move, one step at a time I am sure you will change your way of living / eating.

Common Joe

The word is “Disciplined”

The new buzz word in political campaign is DISCIPLIN. None of us could have avoided the news of the century – Mr. Barack Obama the president elect on November 04, 2008. This day is going to be marked in annals of history for various reasons. I for one am grateful that I could experience this in my life time. Not only was this presidential election historic, trend setting and out right cry for change, but in many ways opened a completely different realm and approach to campaigning.

Going into the elections I had my own doubts for Mr. Obama’s electability. I was in the same boat as many others who thought “America is ready for a woman to lead but not too sure if it’s ready to be lead by an African-American”. My inhibitions eroded once he was the chosen the candidate for democrats and my conviction in him grew stronger after hearing him speak at the acceptance ceremony at Denver, CO.

The campaign undertaken by the Obama camp was nothing short of exemplary best. This was the first time around that we got the taste of what a Presidential campaign is and more importantly what it should be. For the first time in any ways we came across a campaign that was aimed at the good of the general population than running on religious lines or moral black mail. Emphasis was laid out for sacrifice from every individual and the importance of the role of a FATHER & MOTHER in a household.

If you have not read/listened to the acceptance speech by Obama, I would defiantly suggest reading it (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7587321.stm) – it will make you realize the thought process, hard work and mindset this campaign has undertaken to address each of the issues in hand ( economy was not in this bad a state then, hence you will not see much in this front) and their approach to addressing each of these issues. A wide range of topics were covered from education, military, spending, taxes, insurance, family etc.

Completely contrasting to this was the Mr. McCain’s campaign, no policies discussed in any of the campaigns purely relied on his POW experience and the number of years in capitol building. The republican base was happy to assume the role of pit bull with lipstick and smear campaign than relying out any details on how they intend to address the issues at hand. There was NOT ONE issue in hand that was discussed by the McCain campaign. May it be a policy or approach to an any existing situations that the country was facing. It was assumed that adjectives such as MAVERICK and EXPERIENCE and Ms. Palins phrase of “Pit bull with lipstick” was more than sufficient to churn the electorate in their favor! This would work with the rural population but when your opponent’s target group is educated college grads – the republican camp was in all respects short sighted, Period.

To top it all the very aggressiveness of the Obama campaign with the foresight of whom to target( educated college grads, of course!) and the relentless energy that the campaign generated could not be out smarted with caducity of McCain or sheer ignorance of world politics of Ms. Palin.

If the above said wasn’t enough, Obama comes forth as the coolest candidate, had done his home work very well with all the required due diligence, dedication and utmost discipline. It was disciplined to extent that not only did the campaign not know whom to target but how to target, check out (http://www.barackobama.com/index.php ).

Obama’s campaign as an example is not limited to the political right or left but can be utilized by every one of us. It gives an understanding of how to approach any give situation. If you want something in life no matter the odds that you face or have to fight – if you have done your due diligence and worked hard, with a disciplined approach you are not too far from your goal. The presidency of USA as said by the senator himself was truly an – audacious hope, today the world got to see the sheer magnitude of the hope and assiduous top down management practice in achieving it.

For all the others whom the Obama story has inspired and given a fresh outlook I wish you luck in fulfilling your dreams.

Common Man or should say Common Joe!

I am married and have a full time job, don’t find much time to dedicate to this blog. In the above said lines I am taking my disciplined approach to this blog. I intend to add articles at least once in two weeks, let’s see how far I get.

Nostradamus did not see this coming….

There have been quite a few prophecies in the past and the most famous among them and widely read book remains the one written by Nostradamus. Some call him genius and yet others doubt the poetic, innuendoes as they are left for the readers interpretation.

But today I intend to put forth blatantly that I foresee that US intelligence/media( the media is nothing more than a marketing tool in US society – no more does it rely on realistic journalism) will have some lead / break through / security alert announced as early as October of 2008 and this precisely will be before the Presidential elections in November of 2008.

How am I able to say this? Very simple we value our life more than anything else in this world. True to heart that is my take too. If we look at the past 10 years the government in US has made use of this vulnerability of it masses to its best advantage. The same vulnerability is well played upon the insurance industry – but that’s a completely different debate.

After the first tenure of President Bush it would have taken an electorate completely ignorant of social, economical, political and foreign policy to re-elect him. Agreed it was a closely contented race and it was hair raising experience to watch him win the very first and the second tenure.

I am not sure how many among us remember the Osama Bin Laden’s tape that surfaced from no where on October 29th, 2004 just a week before the presidential election? Why in October not November or September. The reasoning is very simple – it plays with the psyche of the electorate and even those who want political, economic and foreign policy reform, weight their options and tend to vote for a party that is pro-war in the name of elimination of terrorism. Most of the electorate is happy knowing the government is doing something to curb terrorism. Though in plain text it means invading a sovereign county and killing innocent people. Now this was 2004 presidential election.

Take the case of mayoral elections for the city of NY – Mr. Michael Bloomberg was not given a ticket by democrats, he chooses to run on the republican ticket instead. I don’t mean to under mine the $100/- per resident of New York campaigning that Mr. Bloomberg had undertaken (he is a billionaire and he could afford it), but right before the election date the city wide terrorist alert was at its peak. We saw high levels of security, sniffer dogs and random checking at all mass transit locations. Guess what? He did become the mayor, not sure how much of it was the $$$ and how much of it was purely due to the terror that was created. The millions spent on campaign were great but the red alert was the icing on the cake that sealed the deal.

These were just few of the comparisons, there are many more where this administration had used varying levels of deception to play with its mass. Today we are in peril politically, economically, credibility wise and on foreign policy. This administration has always been elusive, side tracking, and playing with the vulnerability of its people. It is human tendency that we incline to protect ourselves first. I will not be surprised if this tactics follows again in 2008 election.

Hence I predict that more sooner than later we will be tuning in to hear a very terrifying news on terrorist / Osama? his aids or something relating to these.

Which leads me to wonder who is a terrorist after all? One how creates terror or the one who is marketed as a terrorist. If it is one who creates terror – then this administration is no less a terrorist than Osama – it has played with the emotions of its own people more than once and wants to portray an image of human rights while invading and ruining counties at whim without any evidence supporting the contrary.

So look forward to a news blast soon to arrive…..
Your thoughts are welcome.

Republicans, Palin and Pro-life Prophecy.

What a long weekend it has been! from Gustav to Palin each falling short in their respective categories of hurricane and vice presidential choice respectively.

When I first heard Ms. Palin's acceptance speech - the one she gave at Washington, PA,( not the acceptance speech at GOP convention in MN) the only though that came to me was "boy she is a narcissist". Her acceptance speech was all about herself and her kids and husband. Too much yapping and goofed up talk with not much substance.

Even before I could get over the fact that her choice was purely on the merit that, one she was a woman and two she was for pro-life, came the news that she choose to give birth to a down syndrome baby. While this in itself was hard to digest we were bombarded with the news of a pregnant teen-age Palin sibling. All this with in two days of acceptance speech in PA, this was giving the Republican Party a much needed talk across America.

So lets walk over a few of Palin's conviction in life and in general what does it tell us about the future vice presidential contender.

Ms. Palin takes pride in being pro-life, and just what on earth is pro-life? The answer varies depending on the demographic the question was given to. My stance on pro-life is - yes, we should value life, the one you have been given to live in this wonderful world. But I would not want to live in a society where unwanted pregnancy is made to go through the whole term in the name of pro-life. I believe this choice is for the woman in question to make.

Pregnancy brings its own complications and changes in a woman's life in terms of varying levels hormones, ups and downs in emotions to physical changes and trying to adjust to the fact that she is going to give life to a new being. This experience in itself should be wholesome and the one that a woman looks forward to. It is enduring to say that no man on earth can match this amazing power to give life (let me correct that statement by adding .....no man can give life unless you are an Oprah Man). So I was saying, every woman wants to go through this wonderful experience. It would be lame to say an educated, career oriented woman doesn't want to be a mother, only she wants to have a kid when she is willing - physically, mentally and more important financially and above all with whomever she wishes to have this kid with.

In America teenage pregnancy is among the highest in developed societies as high as 44 in every 1000 and we have 73 million kids in this country. You do the math on number of pregnancies.

It is a staggering figure by any means. US probably is the only developed country in the world where a personal choice of pro-life, pro-choice, religious choice and last but not the least sexual orientation defines majority of it's citizen's reasoning to elect a president ( atleast the last two elections proved this like no other) rather than the over all approach of a party, on how the party works towards empowering its citizens, economics, foreign policies, providing affordable health care, revive the education system or going green.

What does a party achieve by advocating for pro-life? Let’s try to analyze this. It is a well known fact that our teenagers are sexually active as early as 13 and 12. Hypothetically let’s assume a teenage kid gets pregnant. What happens next? The advocates of pro-life will want the kid to go through the full term of pregnancy and deliver the child. Now how does this affect the society and more importantly the girl? She most likely is given an opportunity to attend a school for mothers and may be the boy who is responsible for the pregnancy does the same towards moral support. I don't see this going much further than this. Even before these teenage parents get out of their teens they would be going their own ways may be the infant ends up in foster care or is left at the mercy of grand parents or at the door step of an orphanage.

On the other hand lets suppose the teenage parents choose to be together and go through the ups and downs of life together. Most likely one of them will stay at home and the other will attend college. Let’s assume the girl stays at home and boy attends college (you can reverse the scenario too, but I assumed the general practice here). With the pressures of raising a family, work and school most likely he will discontinue mid-way. But he will be discontinuing not only school but the very chance to succeed in life, because no matter what, he will leave with a staggering student loan. Now that he has not finished his schooling it’s even worse as it will take more than a life time to repay the academic loan for an education that went futile.

Now we have a family of three (assuming they did not have any kids, for analysis lets say they practiced abstinence - its quite unlikely but what the heck )mother - a school drop-out, a baby and a father who is a college drop-out. Apart from this the family has to endure - raising living expenses, doctors /hospital bills, utilities /rent etc, Oh! Not
to forget the student loan. The very thought of a situation as this, is un-comforting and very heart breaking. But the fact remains - there are many kids out there who fall into this walk of life just for the fact that they were not given a choice in the name of religion and pro-life.

All that pro-life does, when it is forced on a society is weaken the society. The politicians know this very well and they play this song of pro-life in tune with our saga of life. It is an accepted fact that we tend to pray in the time of need, when things are not working well for us. During tiring times like these we tend to seek solace in a religious institutions, church incase of America as it being a Christian state, is where the boy or the girl will end up not able to tackle life, to be one with God and almighty that listens to everyone. Guess what, the pastor is right there waiting for you to arrive and preach his way to pro-life, Christ is the only God and marriage is between man and a woman!


Does something ring a bell? The republicans in America are very strong and rich community. But the rich republicans make for hardly 5% of the population. Hence to be in power and double their oil, armaments, pharmaceutical or any other investment profits, they need a government that protects their means and the very approach they take is by limiting the cognitive powers of the society.

The only ones who loose in this race are the common man like you and me, the evangelical have achieved their goal by converting people, the filthy rich have safe guarded their personal interests in the name of religion. But we tend to forget the scores of Tom, Dick and Harry , Marry, Anna and Terry who followed the crowd to see the twilight zone that never was and were taken for a ride. We pay the price and keep praying.

While we are asked to pray our way in and out through our misery and sorrows, every day we are made to believe to work hard and have faith. But unfortunately for us God doesn’t help the ones who do not help themselves. We are made not only to believe but also to assume that one day the bounty of the happiness & wealth will trickle down. While we wait in expectation for this to happen it is the very Halliburton’s and Exxon-mobile's and Blackstone's make their wallets heavy.

It is a vicious circle where the one with rein withholds all philosophies of life in the name of religion. You are made to believe that there is hope and light at the end of the tunnel, when the very tunnel you are in becomes your daily diasporas of your life.

Wake up and realize your dreams. Religion and state should not be combined together. One should be religious in his/her actions, but religion should never be the sole guiding factor in your life.

Hence the republicans your choice of Ms. Palin translates to the plain truth that it is not your stance on religion that you should be advocating or rather marketing. It is the public good that you can do, the harmony that you can bring in society, foreign relation that you can mend - these are the issues that matter more than morality behind the stem cell and pro-life choices.

Housing slump!

When the presidential nominee of Republican party Mr. John McCain was asked "How many houses do you or Mrs. McCain own?", Mr McCain basically dodged the question more in lines of " I don't know, my staff will get back to you" and did not answer the question.  Why was this such a difficult question? more importantly what does it tell us about the presence of mind of the next president to be contender?

 

In my opinion a simple answer to the question would have been for him to differentiate between HOME and a HOUSE( this takes presence of mind to answer, for you are given a  split second to answer in a live interview). He should have listed out the couple of houses that he owns mostly the ones he has made his HOME and then to leave it vague something in the line of "...couple of other condo/properties that are purely investment"( He will still need to know the count).

But instead he choose to dodge the question and then come back with a well rehearsed answer later when asked by Ms. Katie Couric on the same subject in lines of  ".....how blessed he feels he is to have accomplished what he owns and living the American dream............couple of other properties that are purely investment". Ironically this statement doesn't fit well in the current economy where average American is finding it difficult to make the mortgage payment on ONE house they so badly want to make their HOME. 

This shows the irony in the society where the super rich who get tax rebate for being wealthy, have made it so far high up in the hierarchy that they find it difficult to remember the count on what they own, have no idea what an average American is going through on a daily basis.  While the rest of us are stuck counting every penny we have to judicially make a decision on conservative spending. 

- Common man with a uncommon thought!

 

Gas price and "HYBRID" Cars

The thoughts expressed here are purely mine and it is not acceptable to quote from here without permission.

I am new to blogging and this is my very first artlicle.

It is an accepted fact in American society that gas prices go up in summer and specifically so during the long weekends. It is remarkable that we saw prices as high as $150/barrel while analysts were expecting it to shoot up to $200/barrel.

This was a unprecedented spike even for the ones among us who had prepared themselves for the expected spike during summer holidays. Which forced me to think what if it was after all an artificial spike - blame it on the speculators, war on terror, instability in middle east, higher consumption from emerging markets of China and India but in spite of all these reasonings that were put forth $150/barrel price doesn’t make sense, and some of the trade pundits agreed that all the above said reasons culminate to a $80/barrel and max $90/barrel, unless there was a something more to the story.

The above said is the premise to my article - the actual cause for gas price hike, is far more corporate in nature than what we have been made to believe and definitely inverse from the choices put forth towards the reasoning for the spike.

Lets take the Kyoto agreement - USA the only super power in world and the largest emitter of CO2 from fossil fuels and most polluting of all the countries did not ratify the agreement. Take this in perspective with the auto industry in USA. This was the time when Toyota had launched Hybrid in US, but the US auto giants GM, Fords et la were far from launching any of their hybrid models yet. This was also the time when the country, out of no where was hit by the spiraling descent in housing market. We managed to get past the year 2007, half expecting recession half at the mercy of Fed chairman Mr. Bernanky, and some of us were happy to receive the $600 in by IRS to boost our spending in an crunching economy.

Year 2008 starts with a lull in the market and gas prices taking a steady descending spirit. This is about the time when the US markets are flooded with options of renewable energy, energy independence and emission controls. Every where you turn any industry you take it would be hard to ignore the Green Campaign. At the height of this campaign if you retrospect carefully, you will realize - suddenly we have a whole lot of new hybrid models from every possible car maker in US.

I am forced to think if the hike in crude was anything other than an amazing marketing strategy by the gov. where we saw not only the supports of the current gov like EXXONMOBILE making record historical profits but ultimately making it easier for the next presidential nominee of republican party in embracing clean fuel and going green! This campaign was nothing short of success, as it is now engraved in our psyche the very volatile nature of crude prices. We have come to a point where in an average Joe would think twice before buying a regular car and would find it hard not to buy an hybrid instead.

Does this remind of a similar campaign – for WMD’s in IRAQ? Similar indeed, only this time around it was not the Fed coughing up the expense through budget and regulations through congress but it was us the Common Man who had paid the price with staycations, lesser groceries and lesser spending power and the sleepless nights continue into the fall.As winter approaches and we have to worry for oil to burn...........

But again I am a common Joe who is trying to make a living far from the game plan of corporate world and high profile presidential campaign.

---- Common man with an uncommon thought!.

All your opinions and candid remarks are welcome. Would like to know your thoughts on the same and how do you perceive this article.